In our 2024 predictions, we foresee several international events that could significantly impact the global economy and political landscape.
United States Politics
The U.S. will be in the spotlight due to the upcoming presidential election. Former President Donald Trump is odd-on favourite to secure the Republican party nomination, potentially choosing a female running mate. However, the outcome of Trump's ongoing legal battles could influence his candidacy and the overall political climate.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, with Russia potentially gaining the upper hand due to Ukraine's exhausted U.S. military funding. This conflict has set Russia's economy back by an estimated 30 years, as European countries seek alternative suppliers for gas and oil.
Middle East Tensions
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is a significant concern, especially if it expands to involve Iran-backed factions such as Hezbollah, Houthi's, or Syrian elements. This conflict could have far-reaching effects, including potential impacts on the 2024 U.S. election. The situation has been further complicated firstly by recent U.S. and UK strikes on Houthi installations, and the subsequent drone attack on US solidiers in Jordan.
The territorial struggle between Taiwan and China has seen a significant development with the recent Taiwanese elections. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been elected as the next president, marking the first time a political party in Taiwan has won a third straight presidential election. However, the DPP lost its majority in the legislature, indicating a more complex political landscape moving forward.
The UK is gearing up for a general election, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative government potentially pushing for a swift reduction in interest rates, also following the US Federal Reserve's lead. The election is constitutionally due by December 17, 2024, but could happen sooner, with Rishi Sunak recently signalling a potential autumn poll. The Conservative Party is facing internal challenges and poor polling, which could lead to a significant defeat. The Labour Party, under Keir Starmer, is currently enjoying a large lead in the polls.
Western Market and China
The Western market is predicted to be bullish for most of 2024 and into 2025, with Tech and Pharma sectors making a comeback, and strategies related to climate change and ESG being implemented. However, China's economic slowdown could impact its major importers, and the country faces long-term challenges such as an aging population, stock-pile secrecy, and corruption.
These international events could have significant implications for the global economy and political landscape, and we will continue to monitor them closely. Check out our next blog post where we will delve into the potential impacts of these events on the UK housing market.