The 18-Year Property Cycle: What it means for UK property prices

The 18-year property cycle is a theory that suggests property prices undergo predictable phases of boom and bust approximately every 18 years. This cycle is influenced by various economic factors, including interest rates, economic growth, and government policies. As we navigate through 2024, understanding where we are in this cycle can provide valuable insights for investors, particularly those servicing mid-high net worth expats and foreign nationals looking to invest in the UK property market. 

Current Phase of the 18-Year Property Cycle 

 Recent analyses and historical patterns suggest that we are currently in the recovery phase of the 18-year property cycle. This phase typically follows a downturn and precedes a significant boom. The recovery phase is characterised by gradual increases in property prices, restored investor confidence, and increasing demand which outstrips supply. 

Evidence of Continued House Price Increases 

  1. Recent Price Trends: Despite predictions of a decline, the actual data shows resilience in the UK housing market. For instance, the average house price in the UK as of March 2024 stood at £264,500, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month[9]. This resilience is part of a broader trend of stabilization and modest growth following the significant disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic challenges. 

2. Regional Growth Variations: While the overall UK market shows modest growth, specific regions, particularly in the North of England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, have experienced more significant price increases. For example, Scotland saw a 5.6% increase in house prices year-on-year as of February 2024. These regional disparities indicate localized recoveries that could be attractive to investors looking for growth opportunities. 

3. Long-Term Forecasts: Looking beyond 2024, forecasts by major real estate analysts predict a return to more substantial growth. For instance, projections suggest a cumulative increase in house prices by nearly 18% from 2024 to 2029. This long-term optimism is based on factors like easing mortgage rates and a general improvement in economic conditions. 

4. Impact of Economic Policies: Recent government policies and economic indicators also support a positive outlook for the housing market. For example, the Bank of England's stabilization of interest rates has helped maintain affordability for borrowers, which supports continued demand in the housing market. 

Strategic Implications for Investors 

For investors, particularly those dealing with mid-high net worth individuals, the current phase of the property cycle offers strategic opportunities. The key is to identify regions with higher growth potential and to benefit from the general market recovery. Investors should consider the following strategies: 

- Regional Focus: Target investments in regions showing above-average growth, such as the North of England and Scotland, where the potential for appreciation is higher. 

- Long-Term Perspective: Encourage clients to adopt a long-term view of their property investments, capitalising on the expected growth through to the next peak of the cycle around 2026. 

- Diversification: Advise clients to diversify their property portfolios across different regions and property types to mitigate risks associated with any localised economic downturns. 

 Implications for Mortgage Seekers 

For those looking to secure a mortgage, the current market conditions suggest a favorable environment for building equity. As house prices are expected to continue rising, buyers entering the market now could see significant appreciation in their property values, enhancing their equity position. This is particularly advantageous for first-time buyers and those looking to invest in regions with higher growth potential.

However, it's important to note that while mortgage rates have shown some volatility, the overall trend towards stabilisation provides a conducive environment for securing financing. Buyers should be aware of potential rate changes and consider locking in rates where possible to ensure predictable costs. 

Conclusion   

The 18-year property cycle provides a useful framework for understanding the fluctuations in the UK property market. As we move through the recovery phase towards the next boom, there are significant opportunities for informed investors. By focusing on regions with robust growth prospects and adopting a long-term investment strategy, investors can capitalise on the cyclical nature of the property market to build substantial equity and achieve favorable returns. 

 At IMS, we understand the complexities of the property market and the unique needs of our clients, especially mid-high net worth expats and foreign nationals. Our approach is holistic, considering not just your current property portfolio but also your future aspirations. We are committed to helping you make and implement the best mortgage financing decisions, with a deep understanding of market cycles and regional variations.

Whether you're looking to buy your first home, invest in a promising region, or reevaluate your current portfolio, IMS is here to provide expert guidance and support. Contact us today to discuss how we can help you navigate this dynamic market and optimise your property investments. 

Sources: 

https://thesecretwealthadvantage.com/

https://baroncabot.com/blog/house-price-predictions 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-january-2024 

https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605607/house-prices-in-2023 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/ 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/december2023 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02820/ 

UK Housing Market Forecast Revised Upwards

Savills has revised its five-year forecast for the UK mainstream housing market, projecting stronger price growth than previously anticipated. 

The key points from the updated forecast are: 

- UK mainstream house prices are now expected to rise by 13.1% over the next five years, up from the previous forecast of 10.5%. 

- This upward revision is driven by continued robust demand, limited supply of new homes, and an improving economic outlook with falling inflation and mortgage rates. 

- Price growth is forecast to be strongest in the North West (17.9%) and Yorkshire & Humber (16.8%) over the next five years, as buyers seek better value outside of London and the South East. 

- However, London is also expected to see a bounce back in price growth, with a projected 12.8% increase by 2028 as affordability constraints ease. 

- Rental value growth forecasts have also been revised up, with rents across the UK expected to rise by 16.2% over the next five years, led by the East of England (19.4%) and South East (18.9%). 

The report highlights the continued resilience and demand in the UK housing market, despite recent economic headwinds. With affordability improving and the outlook brightening, Savills expects the mainstream market to regain momentum in the coming years. 

For expats and overseas buyers considering a UK mortgage, International Mortgage Solutions is here to help. Visit mortgageims.com to book an appointment. 

Source: https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/359399-0 

Understanding UK House Prices: Trends and Mortgage Options for Expats and Overseas Buyers

Navigating the UK mortgage market as an expat or foreign buyer can be particularly challenging, especially in the current climate of fluctuating house prices. Recent data indicates a complex landscape for UK house prices, with regional variations and overall trends reflecting both increases and decreases in property values. For instance, as of early 2024, house prices have shown a marginal increase on a national level, with specific areas like Northern Ireland and the North West of England experiencing more significant growth. Conversely, the South of England, including London, has seen declines in property values. This variability underscores the importance of understanding the specific market dynamics of different regions within the UK.

For expats and foreign nationals looking to purchase property in the UK, these fluctuations in house prices can impact the affordability and availability of suitable mortgages. The challenges are compounded by the need to navigate a mortgage application process that may not be familiar, alongside potential issues related to credit history, income verification, and the need for specialised lending solutions that accommodate the unique circumstances of overseas buyers.

Given these complexities, it's crucial for expats and foreign buyers to seek expert guidance and support when exploring their mortgage options in the UK. International Mortgage Solutions (IMS) specializes in providing tailored mortgage advice and solutions for high net worth individuals, expats, and foreign nationals looking to purchase property in the UK. With a deep understanding of the challenges faced by overseas buyers and a comprehensive approach that considers the full financial picture of each client, IMS is well-equipped to navigate the UK mortgage market on behalf of its clients.

For those considering financing a UK property purchase from abroad, IMS offers a wealth of expertise and resources to help secure the most favorable mortgage terms. Whether you're an expat returning to the UK or a foreign national investing in the UK property market for the first time, IMS can provide the guidance and support needed to navigate the complexities of the mortgage application process.

For more information on securing a UK mortgage as an expat or foreign buyer, visit mortgageims.com.

Bank of England Maintains Interest Rate at 5.25% Amid Economic and Inflation Considerations

Today, the Bank of England (BoE) announced its decision to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%, marking the sixth consecutive time this rate has been held steady. This decision comes amidst a backdrop of fluctuating house prices and the ongoing challenge for both current mortgage holders and prospective homebuyers in navigating the financial implications of interest rates on their property investments.

The BoE's decision to keep the rate unchanged is influenced by a variety of factors, including the need to manage inflation while supporting economic growth and employment. Despite the stable rate, the housing market continues to experience a mix of trends, with some areas seeing price increases due to demand, while others face declines as buyers become more cautious in light of potential future rate changes.

For homeowners and buyers, the current interest rate environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Those with variable rate mortgages will not see an immediate increase in their monthly payments, providing some relief in the short term. However, the prospect of future rate hikes remains, which could affect affordability and borrowing costs down the line.

Prospective buyers, particularly expats and foreign nationals looking to purchase property in the UK, may find the current market conditions complex to navigate. The combination of steady interest rates, fluctuating house prices, and the potential for future economic shifts makes it crucial to seek expert advice on mortgage options and strategies for securing the best possible terms.

IMS specialises in providing mortgage advice and solutions for mid-high net worth expats and foreign nationals seeking to purchase property in the UK. Our team of experts is well-versed in the nuances of the UK property market and can offer tailored advice to help you make informed decisions about your property investment.

If you're an expat or foreign buyer looking to understand how today's BoE rate decision impacts your mortgage options or if you're seeking guidance on purchasing property in the UK, we invite you to contact IMS at contact@mortgageims.com. Our team is here to assist you with all your mortgage and property investment needs.

UK Housing Market Finds Stability Amidst Challenges: Insights from Halifax's April 2024 House Price Index

The UK housing market has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of economic uncertainties, with the latest data from Halifax's House Price Index for April 2024 revealing a modest yet steady growth. The average house price across the UK saw a 1.1% increase compared to the same month in the previous year, with the average property now valued at £288,949. This growth, albeit slight, signals a market that is gradually finding its footing amidst higher interest rates and evolving buyer expectations.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

April's House Price Index (HPI) indicates a quarterly change of 0.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. This subtle growth underscores a market that, while facing its share of challenges, is showing signs of stability. Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, notes, "UK house prices held steady in April, rising on a monthly basis by just +0.1% (less than £200 in cash terms). Annual growth rose to +1.1%, from +0.4% in March, though this can be attributed to the base effect of weaker price growth around this time last year."

Market Dynamics in the Era of Higher Interest Rates

The early part of 2024 has seen the housing market navigate through a period of higher borrowing costs, which has inevitably impacted buyer behavior and market dynamics. Despite these challenges, there is a growing sense of optimism among homebuyers, buoyed by a period of relative stability. "While borrowing costs remain more expensive than a few years ago, homebuyers are gaining confidence from a period of relative stability," Bryden explains. This confidence is reflected in the increased number of mortgage applications and the highest point in mortgage approvals in 18 months.

Adjusting Expectations and the Rise of Smaller Properties

A significant trend highlighted by Halifax's recent research is the shift in buyer expectations, particularly among first-time buyers who are now targeting smaller properties to compensate for higher borrowing costs. This shift is evident in the early months of 2024, with the value of flats rising most sharply, narrowing the growth gap with larger properties that has persisted for the last four years.

The Road Ahead: Modest Growth Amidst Affordability Challenges

Despite the positive signs, affordability constraints remain a significant challenge for both new buyers and those transitioning from fixed-term deals. Recent weeks have seen a slight uptick in mortgage rates, primarily due to market expectations around future Bank of England base rate changes. However, there is still hope that downward adjustments in the Bank Rate later this year could lead to a decrease in fixed mortgage rates.Bryden remains cautiously optimistic about the future, stating, "If, as is still expected, downward moves in Bank Rate come into play later this year, fixed mortgage rates should fall. Combined with the resilience displayed by the housing market over recent months, we now expect property prices to rise modestly over the course of 2024."In conclusion, the UK housing market is showing signs of stability and modest growth, navigating through the challenges of higher interest rates and evolving buyer expectations. While affordability remains a concern, the anticipated adjustments in the Bank Rate and the market's resilience offer a glimmer of hope for a steady recovery in the months ahead.

Navigating the UK Mortgage Market for Overseas High Earners: How IMS Can Help

The UK mortgage market can be a challenging landscape for high net worth individuals, especially those earning abroad. Recent research from Investec highlights a significant issue: a vast majority of high net worth individuals face mortgage rejections or are forced to accept lower loan-to-value ratios due to lenders' inability to understand complex remuneration structures. This problem is particularly pronounced for overseas high earners, who often find their income mistrusted by many UK lenders.

The Challenge for Overseas High Earners

Consider the case of an expat earning £150,000 a year tax-free, with an additional £100,000 annual bonus. Despite a consistent income over seven years, traditional lenders might disregard the bonus, significantly reducing the loan amount available to the borrower. This scenario is not uncommon and highlights the difficulties faced by high earners based overseas when attempting to secure a mortgage in the UK.

IMS: Tailored Solutions for High Net Worth Individuals

International Mortgage Solutions (IMS) addresses these challenges head-on by offering bespoke underwriting for High Net Worth and UHNW individuals. Unlike many UK brokers, IMS goes beyond standard salary slips, providing a comprehensive analysis that includes full source of wealth and wealth trajectory reports. This approach stems from the expertise of our founder, Rupert Bastick, who has extensive experience in the wealth division of one of the world's largest investment banks. By gathering a detailed seven-year history and conducting a deep dive into the client's background, education, employment, and reasons for receiving bonuses, IMS presents a complete financial story to underwriters. This method allows lenders to consider the full income amount — in our example, £200,000 or even the full £250,000 — enabling clients to secure financing for their dream properties.

Why Choose IMS?

IMS stands out in the UK mortgage market for several reasons:

• Expertise in High Net Worth Mortgages: Our team specializes in navigating the complexities of high net worth mortgages, ensuring that our clients receive the best possible terms.

• Global Perspective: With a focus on expats and foreign nationals, IMS understands the unique challenges faced by overseas borrowers and offers solutions tailored to their specific needs.

• Personalized Service: We believe in a client-focused approach, taking the time to understand your financial situation and goals to provide the most suitable mortgage options.

Conclusion

For high net worth individuals based overseas, securing a mortgage in the UK can seem daunting. However, with IMS, you have a partner that understands your unique financial landscape and has the expertise to navigate it successfully. If you're considering financing a UK property purchase from abroad, IMS is here to help.

Get started with IMS or ask for more information so you can start your journey towards securing your dream property in the UK.

What could stimulate the housing market in 2024

Several factors could contribute to a resurgence in the UK housing market in 2024:

Mortgage Pricing War and Interest Rate Cuts:

A mortgage pricing war and anticipated Bank of England interest rate cuts could rejuvenate the housing market. Lower mortgage rates make home buying more affordable, potentially stimulating demand.

Political Factors:

The possibility of a general election in 2024 could impact the housing market. If the election is scheduled for later in the year, it could invigorate the housing market in the spring.

Housing Policy Evolution:

The adaptation of housing policy to better reflect the economic, demographic, and social realities in the UK could stimulate the housing market. This includes support for the 'build-to-rent' sector, which has seen growing demand due to high mortgage costs and changes in consumer lifestyles. This could lead to the emergence of more large-scale, multi-tenure residential schemes. The new-build market in the UK is under significant pressure to expand exponentially due to the highlighted pressures on social and government housing for families under the cost-of-living crisis and the building asylum/refugee housing situation.

Demand Outstripping Supply:

With an estimated demand of some 230,000 new homes per annum needed in 2019 pre-Covid, this figure is now estimated to be over 350,000 per annum just to keep pace with demand. Currently, less than 50% of this target is being met. This will likely result in lenders needing to support the new-build market again, with signs of this already being seen as lenders relax their property lending criteria.

Return of Confidence:

After a year of sustained price falls in 2023, returning confidence could stimulate the housing market. This is indicated by a succession of unexpected monthly rises in the past three months and a larger-than-expected pick-up in activity.

Increased Demand for Private Rented Housing:

High mortgage costs and increased costs of living have led to growing demand for private rented housing. This could stimulate the 'build-to-rent' sector and lead to the emergence of more large-scale, multi-tenure residential schemes.

Stabilisation of the Bank of England Base Rate of Interest:

The stabilisation of the Bank of England base rate of interest could lead to a cut in mortgage rates by several mortgage providers, potentially stimulating the housing market.

Potential Bottoming Out of Prices:

Some experts predict a "bottoming out" of prices in the fourth quarter of 2024, which could stimulate the housing market.

In summary, the blog post suggests that there are reasons for optimism regarding UK house prices, with many factors pointing to increased transaction activity as well as prices